In the wake of Andy Burnham’s announcement to join the Gorton and Denton by-election, Keir Starmer faced a challenging dilemma. Allowing Burnham to run posed the risk of fueling speculation about a potential leadership challenge and eliminating a barrier for such a move, as only MPs are eligible for the leadership position.
Furthermore, the scenario of confronting an unforeseen mayoral by-election in Greater Manchester amidst Labour’s upcoming challenging elections in Scotland, Wales, and English councils in May could spell trouble for Starmer. Poor outcomes in these contests might pose a significant threat to Starmer, with ambitious figures like Burnham poised to seize opportunities.
The alternative, which the Prime Minister opted for, involved blocking Burnham’s candidacy citing the financial burden on taxpayers to hold a mayoral race and the diversion of party resources from the May elections. While this move neutralizes the immediate threat, its long-term repercussions could be severe.
Following the news, many MPs expressed discontent, accusing Labour’s governing body of orchestrating a “stitch-up.” Burnham risks being viewed as a martyr by disgruntled backbenchers who perceive the decision as overbearing control from Downing Street.
The Parliamentary party has already exhibited rebellious tendencies by pushing the Government into multiple U-turns, and provoking further dissent won’t ease Starmer’s responsibilities.
Privately, a minister suggested before the verdict that allowing Burnham to run would have been a bolder move, and Starmer might appear weaker by blocking him.
Notably, No10 has taken a hard stance against Wes Streeting, a potential leadership contender, and now prevented Burnham from re-entering Westminster. Opinions diverge on whether these actions reflect strength or weakness, but the prevailing sentiment leans towards the latter.
Supporters of the Prime Minister argue that blocking Burnham should quell internal disputes that the public finds tiresome. However, until Starmer can rejuvenate Labour’s declining poll ratings, speculation about his future will persist.
While Burnham has detractors who accuse him of prioritizing personal ambitions over his constituents in Greater Manchester, his popularity outside of Westminster is undeniable, earning him the moniker “King of the North” during the pandemic.
Although Labour secured Gorton comfortably in 2024, the party faces a formidable challenge in retaining it, as Reform mounts a strong campaign and the Greens aim to attract left-leaning voters. Burnham cautioned about the repercussions of blocking him on the by-election result, emphasizing the gravity of a potential Labour loss.
Failure in the upcoming by-election could have severe consequences for Labour.