Australian researchers have developed a unique online tool that can assess the impact of fossil fuel projects on the climate, with a Canadian offshore oil venture serving as a test case. The Carbon Impacts Tracer, as it is called, can predict how proposed energy developments like mines or offshore platforms may contribute to global warming, glacier melting, and even human fatalities.
According to Sarah Perkins-Kirkpatrick, a climate science professor at the Australian National University, the tool can link emissions from individual fossil fuel projects to the level of warming they cause and the specific consequences of that warming. By utilizing carbon dioxide emission data provided by project proponents, the tool calculates the projected impact on global temperature rise and then uses scientific literature to determine real-world effects such as coral reef degradation, decreased food production, and job losses.
The Carbon Impacts Tracer website was launched with case studies on several Australian projects, one in the U.K., and the Bay du Nord offshore oil project in Canada, which is led by Equinor, a Norwegian energy company. The tool estimates that emissions from the Bay du Nord project could reach 188 megatonnes over two decades, resulting in a negligible temperature increase globally. Additionally, it predicts that the emissions could expose over 111,000 individuals to extreme heat and cause 25 heat-related deaths in Europe. The tool also suggests that the project could lead to 4.6 square kilometers of glacier loss and job losses impacting around 2,100 people, pushing nearly 9,800 individuals into poverty due to pollution.
While Equinor did not provide immediate comment on the findings, Joel Finnis, a climatologist from Memorial University, emphasized the significance of the tool in highlighting the environmental repercussions of projects like Bay du Nord. Maria Nawaz, from the University of New South Wales, noted that historically, it has been challenging to connect fossil fuel projects to their real-world impacts, as proponents often downplay the emissions’ significance. She believes that the Carbon Impacts Tracer could be instrumental in influencing decision-making by governments, regulators, and the public regarding new energy projects.
Nawaz also pointed out the potential use of the tool by insurers to assess project risks and by economists to project economic implications. The current version of the tool focuses on proposed projects rather than existing ones, with plans to include more developments as data becomes accessible.