In the eyes of Russia, there is a belief that a state of war with NATO allies is already underway. While military escalation has not yet occurred, the Kremlin is actively engaging in probing attacks on NATO defenses to assess vulnerabilities and boundaries. These actions by Russia constitute a covert conflict in Europe against NATO nations, targeting infrastructure and supply chains to undermine support for Ukraine. The Kremlin’s objectives include escalating costs for NATO’s backing of Ukraine, disrupting supply chains, and sowing discord in Western nations.
Despite these aggressive actions, Russia has managed to avoid triggering a direct military response from NATO by utilizing third-party proxies for deniability and flexibility. However, the sabotage operations across Europe lack coordination and consistency in targeting relative to the level of support provided to Ukraine by each country. Notably, while Germany, France, and Poland have faced significant attacks due to their support for Ukraine, the UK has experienced fewer physical assaults despite its substantial aid contributions.
Russia’s interest in the UK is evident through intelligence gathering efforts, including recent surveillance activities. Challenges arise for Russia as its intelligence networks in Europe were disrupted in 2022, prompting reliance on local proxies for operations. This shift may result in less effective and coordinated attacks, but Russia is likely to adapt and pose continued risks to non-military targets in Europe, including the UK.