Experts predict that the cost of Christmas dinner this year will remain steady compared to last year, despite the recent increase in food prices. Market research conducted by Worldpanel by Numerator reveals that the average cost for a turkey and accompanying trimmings for a family of four will be around £32.46, slightly lower than last year’s figure of £32.57. This drop in price is notable given the overall grocery price inflation rate of 4.7% last month.
Retailers have intensified their promotional efforts to attract Christmas shoppers, recognizing the importance of competitive pricing in attracting budget-conscious families. According to Worldpanel, the average price of a frozen turkey has decreased by 3.6% to £13.52 compared to last year. Additionally, parsnips are priced 0.4% lower at 71p for four portions.
Conversely, some Christmas dinner essentials have seen price increases, including cauliflower (up 4.2% to £1.22), carrots (up 5.5% to 52p), Brussels sprouts (up 3.6% to 92p), potatoes (up 1.1% to £1.67), gravy granules (up 5.1% to £2.23), stuffing mix (up 6.9% to 96p), cranberry sauce (up around 10% to 86p for four servings), Christmas pudding (up 0.8% to £3.34), and sparkling wine (up 1.7% to £6.51 per bottle).
Discount grocer Aldi has maintained its prices, offering a festive meal for eight under £12, equivalent to less than £1.50 per person. This deal, available from December 19 to Christmas Eve, includes seasonal vegetables that can be discounted to 8p as part of the supermarket’s Christmas Super Six promotion.
Worldpanel by Numerator reports that over 31% of supermarket purchases last month were made on promotion, slightly higher than the previous year. Fraser McKevitt, head of retail and consumer insight, pointed out that retailers are adapting to consumers’ financial struggles by increasing promotional offers, with nearly one-third of all spending focused on discounted items.
Despite a notable 18.4% rise in chocolate prices compared to last year, many households purchased confectionery advent calendars in November, and a significant number of shoppers bought Champagne or sparkling wine recently. Online grocer Ocado achieved a record market share of 2.2%, with sales growing by 15.8% over the past three months. However, physical stores remain dominant in the grocery sector, and the days leading up to Christmas are expected to be the busiest shopping days of the year.
Lidl experienced the largest market share growth, gaining an additional 0.5 percentage points to reach 8.1%, while Aldi’s sales increased by 4.1%, maintaining a 10.5% market share. Sainsbury’s sales grew by 5.1%, raising its market share to 16%, but Asda continues to struggle, with a 4.3% decrease in sales, holding an 11.5% market share.
Tesco remains the leading player in the industry, with sales growing by 4.7% to nearly £10.2 billion in the three months leading up to November, increasing its market share to 28.3%.